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祝从文

研究员,博士生导师
  • 学科方向
    气象学
  • 研究方向
    气候动力学和气候预测
  • 电子邮箱
    zhucw@cma.gov.cn
  • 导师简介
  • 教育及工作经历
  • 论文论著
祝从文,中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室二级研究员,博士研究生导师,中国气象科学研究院“次季节至季节”创新研究团队首席,中国气象局“气象科技”领军人才,国家级首席科学家,“九、三”社中央第十四、十五届资源环境委员会委员。长期从事气候变化、东亚季风变化机理和预测理论研究,主持国家自然科学基金重点项目4项,面上基金2项,以及多项其他国家级科研项目。在国内外学术期刊发表论文130余篇。2006年荣获茅以升北京青年科技奖,2019年获日本气象学会优秀论文奖。他提出的东亚季风指数被应用于国家气候中心东亚季风业务监测,有关全球变暖对中国降水长期变化的影响机理,东亚夏季风降水多模式集合预测理论和方法,东亚季风次季节变化机理等相关研究获得国内外学者的高度关注。
个人其他主页:https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Congwen_Zhu2

教育背景:
1985年09月-1989年06月:南京气象学院气象系、天气动力学,理学学士;
1992年09月-1995年08月:中国气象科学研究院,天气动力学,理学硕士;
1995年09月-1998年06月:南京气象学院气象系,气候动力学,理学博士;


工作经历:

1989年07月-1992年08月:黑龙江省大兴安岭地区气象局,预报员;
1998年07月-1999年09月:中国气象科学研究院; 助理研究员;
1999年10月-2002年03月:日本气象研究所台风研究室,博士后研究;
2002年04月-2004年01月:中国气象科学研究院,副研究员;
2004年02月-2005年12月:韩国亚太气候中心(APCC),访问科学家;
2006年01月-至今:中国气象科学研究院气候系统研究所,研究员。

主持的项目:

2026-2030年:  国家自然科学基金重点项目:西北太平洋台风-季风跨尺度相互作用对华北年最强降水的影响机理和次季节尺度预报研究
2023-2026年:国家自然科学基金气象联合基金:东亚季风年循环对中国汛期降水次季节过程的影响和预测研究
2019-2023年:国家自然科学基金重点项目:东亚夏季风次季节模态变化的关键物理过程、变化机理和可预报性研究;
2015-2018年:国家自然科学基金面上项目:东亚夏季风环流的齿轮耦合模态年际变化对中国降水多样性的影响”;
2011-2015年:中科院碳专项重点项目之“季风变异对中国百年气候变化作用”;
2010-2015年:国家自然基金委创新群体项目“东亚副热带季风变异机理”,研究骨干;
2007-2011年:国家自然科学基金“全球变化与区域响应”重点项目“中国近百年气候年代际变化机理数值模拟研究”;
2004-2006年:国家自然科学基金面上项目“东亚-澳大利亚季风环流系统准经向耦合模态及其对东亚夏季风活动影响。

代表性论文:

Wang T, Ma S, Zhu*,C (2026).Distinct response of summer rainfall anomalies over East Asia to the interannual variability of the annual cycle of East Asian summer monsoon. Journal of Climate, 39(5): 1279-1294.
Jiang, N., Zhu, C., McPhaden, M.J. et al (2025). Atypical warming pattern of strong 2023-24 El Niño boosts global temperatures to new 1.5 °C record. Commun Earth Environ 6, 1012. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02971-1
Jiang, N., Zhu, C., Hu, Z.‐Z., McPhaden, M. J., Lian, T., Zhou, C., et al. (2025). El Nino and sea surface temperature pattern effects lead to historically high global mean surface temperatures in 2023. Geophysical Research Letters, 52,e2024GL113733. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL113733
Ma, S., & Zhu, C. (2025). Severe 2023/2024 winter subseasonal weather extremes over eastern China: Two pathways of ENSO impacts. Geophysical Research Letters, 52, e2025GL119268. https://doi.org/ 0.1029/2025GL119268
Sun Wanyi et al 2025: A Super Cluster of extreme rainfall event over North China in July 2023: role of typhoon-monsoon interaction. Environ. Res. Commun. 7 051007. DOI 10.1088/2515-7620/add654
Yan, Z., Sun, W., Zhu, C., Liu, B., Zhu, Y.,Jiang, N., & Yan, Y. (2025). Remote impact of Typhoon In‐Fa on the catastrophic flood over Henan, inland of China in July 2021. Geophysical Research Letters, 52, e2025GL115122. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL115122
Yan, Z., Sun, W. & Zhu, C,2025:Precursor of Okhotsk blocking high in the cold vortex induced rainfall event over North China: a case study in July 2017. Geosci. Lett. 12, 30. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40562-025-00401-w
Sun, W. Y, C. W. Zhu, B. Q. Liu, Y. H. Yan, and Z. Q. Yan, 2025: Phase- and amplitude-locking of annual maximum rainfall events in North China with annual cycle of East Asian summer monsoon. Adv. Atmos. Sci.,https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-024-4308-2.
Yan, Y., Liu, B., & Zhu, C. (2025). Constraining subseasonal forecast skill for spring 2024 extreme rainfall in South China by extratropical atmospheric initial conditions. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 130, e2025JD043738. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JD043738
Jiang, S., S. M. Ma, C. W. Zhu*, B. Q. Liu, T. Wang, and W. Y. Sun, 2024: The enhancement of the East Asian summer monsoon over Northeast Asia over the most recent two decades. Adv. Atmos. Sci., https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-024-3370-0.
Jiang, N., Zhu*, C., Hu, ZZ. et al., 2024: Enhanced risk of record-breaking regional temperatures during the 2023–24 El Niño. Sci Rep 14, 2521. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-52846-2
Jiang, S. Zhu, C*., Hu, Z.-Z, N, Jiang, and Zheng, F., 2023: Triple-Dip La Niña in 2020-23: Understanding the role of the annual cycle in Tropical Pacific SST. Environ. Res. Lett. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ace274
Yan, Y., Zhu, C*., & Liu, B.,2023: Subseasonal predictability of the July 2021 extreme rainfall event over Henan China in S2S operational models. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 128, e2022JD037879. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD037879.
Ma, S., & Zhu, C*. 2023. Subseasonal swing of cold and warm extremes between Eurasia and North America in winter of 2020/21: Initiation and physical process. Environmental Research Letters, 10.1088/1748-9326/acaabf
Zhu, C. W., B. Q. Liu, L. Li, et al., 2022: Progress and prospects of research on subseasonal to seasonal variability and prediction of the East Asian monsoon. J. Meteor. Res., 36(5), 677–690, doi:10.1007/s13351-022-2059-5.
Ma, S., & Zhu, C*. 2022: The cooling over Northeast Asia in June over the most recent decade: A possible response to declining Bering Sea sea ice in March. Geophysical Research Letters, 49, e2022GL097773. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL097773
Liu, K, Xu, K., Zhu, C. & B., Liu, 2022: Diversity of marine heatwaves in the South China Sea regulated by ENSO phase. Journal of Climate. 15, 877-893. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0309.1
Yan, Y., Liu, B., & Zhu, C., 2021: Subseasonal predictability of South China Sea summer monsoon onset with the ECMWF S2S forecasting system. Geophysical Research Letters, 48, e2021GL095943. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL095943
Yan Y.H, Liu, B.-Q, Zhu, C., Lu., R., Jiang, N., and Ma S., 2021: Subseasonal forecast barrier of the North Atlantic oscillation in S2S models during the extreme mei‑yu rainfall event in 2020. Climate Dynamics. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-06076-1.
Zhu, C., B. Liu, K. Xu, N. Jiang, and K. Liu, 2021: Diversity of the coupling wheels in the East Asian summer monsoon on the interannual time scale: Challenge of summer rainfall forecasting in China. Adv. Atmos. Sci.,https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-020-0199-z.