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刘芸芸

正研高工
  • 学科方向
    气象学
  • 研究方向
    能源气象,气候变化与气象灾害风险,气候动力学和气候预测,海陆气相互作用与季风变率
  • 电子邮箱
    liuyuny@cma.gov.cn
  • 导师简介
  • 教育及工作经历
  • 论文论著
  • 获奖
刘芸芸,博士,硕士生导师,正研级高级工程师。现任国家气候中心气候预测室主任,中国气象局高层次科技创新人才计划气象首席专家,“能源气候服务团队”带头人,中国水资源战略研究会理事会理事。长期从事极端天气气候事件诊断归因、气候预测和能源气候服务的科研和业务工作。主持包括国家自然科学基金、国家重点研发计划课题、气象行业标准等10余项国家级和省部级项目;第一(通讯)作者在Nature Climate ChangeEnvironmental Research Letter等高质量期刊上发表SCI论文40余篇;代表性成果入选2025年科睿唯安ESI全球高被引1%论文。第一作者在Elsevier出版英文专著The Asian Summer Monsoon

1999.9-2003.6 南京气象学院 大气科学学院 理学本科,保送本校硕士研究生

2003.9-2006.6 南京信息工程大学 气象学 理学硕士,导师:何金海教授

2006.9-2009.6 中国科学院和气象科学研究生院联合培养气象学 理学博士,导师:丁一汇院士

2009.7-2011.11 国家气候中心 气候预测室 工程师

2011.12-2014.2 国家气候中心 气候预测室 高级工程师

2014.3-2018.6 国家气候中心 业务科技处 副处长

2018.7-2025.11 国家气候中心 气候预测室 副主任

2025.12-至今 国家气候中心 气候预测室 主任

2025

Zengyuan Guo, Zhuozhuo Lyu and Yunyun Liu*. 2025. Challenge and Bias Correction for Surface Wind Speed Predic-tion: A Case Study in Shanxi Province, China. Climate, 13(7), 150; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13070150

Zengyuan Guo, Yunyun Liu*, Paul-Arthur Monerie, and Zhuozhuo Lyu. 2025. Understanding the East China winter 10m wind speed forecast skill in the copernicus C3S multi-model ensemble. IJOC, DOI: 10.1002/joc.70236.

Mei Li, Yunyun, Liu*, Jinqing Zuo, Yinghan Sang, Jiaxi Yang. 2025. Subseasonal Prediction of Early Summer Precipitation in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Basin Based on Circulation Classification. Atmospheric Research, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108596.

Wei Tan, Zeng-Zhen Hu, Yunyun Liu*, and Michael J. McPhaden. 2025. Evolution and prediction of La Niña conditions in 2024-2025. Environment Research Communications,7, 125031. https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ae2e97

顾薇,刘芸芸,邵勰. 2025. 2025年春季我国主要气候特征及成因分析. 气象,51:1273-1281.

刘芸芸,郭增元,吕卓卓,常蕊,肖潺。2025. 一种基于动力气候模式的区域性次季节风能资源预测方法、电子设备、存储介质及计算机程序产品. 发明专利。专利号:ZL 202411232018.4

刘芸芸,龚振淞,李多。2025. 基于风云卫星的ENSO监测诊断系统v1.0. 软件著作权


2024年

Liu, Y., Z.-Z. Hu, R. Wu, Y. Ding, and B. Jha, 2024. Evolution of ENSO-related seasonal precipitation anomalies in East Asia: A robustness revisit. Int. J. Climatol., 44 (1), 269-285. DOI: 10.1002/JOC.8327.

Tan W., Liu Y., Hu Z.-Z., et al. 2024. On the Weakened Connection between ENSO SST and Warm Water Volume along the Equatorial Pacific. Climate Dynamics, 62,10831-10845. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07478-7.

Zeng-Zhen Hu,*, Michael J. McPhaden, Boyin Huang, Jieshun Zhu, Yunyun Liu. Accelarated Warming in the North Pacific Since 2010. Nature Climate Change, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02088-x.

Tan W., Hu Z.-Z., Michael J. McPhaden, Congwen Zhu, Xiaofan Li, and Yunyun Liu. On the Divergent ENSO Evolutions after the Coastal El Niños in 2017 and 2023. Geophy. Res., Lett., 10.1029/2024GL108198.

刘芸芸,龚振淞. 2024. La Niña衰减年夏季西北太平洋热带气旋活动的差异性分析:2018年和2021年的对比. 中国科学:地球科学,2024, 54(10): 3149–3161. doi: 10.1360/SSTe-2023-0277

Liu Y., Gong Z. 2024. Tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Pacific in La Niña decay summers: comparison between 2018 and 2021. SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences 2024, 67(10): 3098–3109

刘芸芸,章大全,宋连春,丁一汇. 2024. 西太平洋副热带高压指标的修订与应用。气象学报. 82(6), 801-815。doi:10.11676/qxxb2024.20240009

章大全,刘芸芸*. 2024. 2023/2024年冬季北半球大气环流特征及对我国天气气候的影响. 气象, 50(7): 887-896。

刘芸芸,郭增元,吕卓卓,赵玉衡。2024.风能太阳能资源多模式集合月-季节预测系统。软件著作权。2024SR1149721

蒋薇,刘芸芸,徐萌,项瑛,许琪,王子月. 2024. 一种基于深度学习的多尺度次季节降水量预测方法. 专利号:ZL202311113016.9

2023

Liu Y. Y.*, Li D., Hu Z.-Z., Wu R. G., Wu J., Ding Y H. 2023. The extremely wet spring of 2022 in Southwest China was driven by La Nina and Tibetan Plateau warming. Atmospheric Research, 289 106758. doi: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106758.

Tan W., Liu Y. Y., Li X F., Johnson C. N., Hu Z.-Z.* 2023. Multi-Time Scale Variations in Atlantic Niño and a Relative Atlantic Niño Index. Geophysical Research Letters, published online.

Li X. F., Hu Z.-Z., Liu Y. Y., Liang P., 2023. Cause and prediction of 2022 extremely hot summer in East Asia. Journal of Geophysical research: Atmosphere, doi: 10.1029/2022JD038442.

Li X. F., Hu Z.-Z., Ding R. Q., Liu Y. Y. 2023. Which ENSO index best represents its global influences? Climate Dynamics. doi: 10.1007/s00382-023-06804-9.

Li X. F., Hu Z.-Z., McPhaden M. J. Zhu C. W, Liu Y. Y. 2023. Triple-Dip La Niñas in 1998-2001 and 2020-2023: Impact of Mean State Changes in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 28. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD038843

Li M., Yao J, Shen Y, Yuan B, Simmonds I, Liu Y. 2023. Impact of synoptic circulation patterns on renewable energy-related variables over China. Renewable energy, doi:10.1016/j.renene.2023.05.133.

刘芸芸,蒋薇,陈丽娟,李多。2023. 一种基于模式关键环流系统的华北雨季开始日期预测方法。发明专利,专利号:ZL 2022 1 0109717.4. 2023年6月27日授权.

蒋薇,刘芸芸,徐萌,项瑛,许琪,王子月. 一种基于深度学习的多尺度次季节降水量预测方法. 发明专利,专利号:ZL 2023 1 1113016.9. 2024年4月19日授权.

刘芸芸,吕卓卓,赵玉衡,汪方。2023. 风能太阳能资源监测诊断预测系统V1.0. 软件著作权,登记号:2023SR0523843

刘芸芸,李多,蒋薇,任素玲. 2023. 基于风云卫星的亚洲季风监测诊断系统v1.0. 软件著作权,登记号:2023SR0877901.

 

2022年

Liu, Y. Y.*, Hu Z.-Z., Wu R. G., and Yuan X. 2022. Causes and predictability of the 2021 spring southwestern China severe drought. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 39(10), 1766-1776. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-022-1428-4.

Gong Z., Liu Y. Y.*, Hu Z.-Z., and Liang P. 2022. Tropical Cyclone Activities Over the Western North Pacific in Summer 2020: Transition From Silence in July to Unusually Active in August. Front. Earth Sci. 10: 843990. doi: 10.3389/feart.2022.843990

Li, X. F, Hu, Z.-Z., Tseng, Y.-H., Liu, Y. Y., and Liang, P. 2022. A historical perspective of the La Nina event in 2020/2021. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 127, e2021JD035546. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD035546

Qian Y., Hsu P., Fu Z., Liu Y. Y., Li Q. P. 2022. Decadal Change of Meiyu Onset over Yangtze River and Its Causes. Sustainability, 14, 5085. https://doi.org/ 10.3390/su14095085

李多, 刘芸芸*. 2022. 2022年春季我国气候异常特征及成因分析. 气象, 48(10): 1343-1353. doi: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2022.090401.

 

2021

Liu, Y. Y., Wang S. J., Liu J., et al. 2021. Evaluation of FY-3/VIRR sea surface temperature data for climate applications. J. Meteor. Res., 35(6), 952-963. doi: 10.1007/s13351-021-1055-5.

Liu Y. Y.*, Wu R. G., Ding Y. H. 2021. Distinct East Asian precipitation variability and predictability in coupled and uncoupled El Nino events. Environ. Res. Lett. 16, 094014. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac19de

Ding. Y. H., Liu Y. Y.*, Hu Z.-Z. 2021. The record-breaking Meiyu in 2020 and associated atmospheric circulation and tropical SST anomalies. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 38(12), 1980-1993. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-021-0361-2.

Liu Y. Y.*, Hu Z-Z., Wu R. G., et al. 2021.Subseasonal prediction and predictability of summer rainfall over eastern China in BCC_AGCM2.2. Climate Dynamics, 56: 2057-2069. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05574-y

刘芸芸, 王永光, 龚振淞, 娄德君. 2021. 2020年汛期气候预测效果评述及先兆信号分析. 气象, 47(4): 475-485. doi: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2021.04.009.

刘芸芸, 王永光, 柯宗建. 2021. 2020年夏季我国气候异常特征及成因分析. 气象,47(1): 117-126. doi: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2021.01.011.

刘芸芸, 高辉. 2021. 2021年春季我国气候异常特征及可能成因分析. 气象,47(10): 1277-1288. doi: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2021.10.010.

蒋薇, 刘芸芸*, 陈鹏, 张志薇. 2021. 利用深度神经网络和先兆信号的江苏夏季降水客观预测方法. 气象学报, 79(6): 1035-1048. doi:10.11676/ qxxb2021.057

 

2020

Liu Y. Y.*, Hu Z-Z., Wu R. G. 2020. Cooperative effects of tropical Pacific and Atlantic SST forcing in southern China winter precipitation variability. Climate Dynamics, 55: 2903-2919. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05430-z

Liu Y. Y.*, Hu Z-Z., Wu R. G. 2020. Was the extremely wet winter of 2018/2019 in the lower reach of the Yangtze River driven by El Niño–Southern Oscillation? Int J Climatol, 40: 6441-6457 https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6591

Liu Y. Y.*, Li Y., Ding Y. H. 2020. East Asain summer rainfall projection and uncertainty under a global warming scenario. Int J Climatol, 40: 4828-4842. DOI: 10.1002/joc.6180.

刘芸芸,丁一汇. 2020. 2020年超强梅雨特征及其成因分析. 气象, 46(11): 1393-1404. doi: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2020.11.001.

 

2019

Liu Y. Y.*, Ke Z. J., Ding Y. H. 2019. Predictability of East Asian summer monsoon in seasonal climate forecast models. Int J Climatol, 39:5688-5701.

Liu Y. Y., Liang P., Sun Y. 2019. The Asian Summer Monsoon: Characteristics, Variability, Teleconnections and Projection. Elsevier. pp237. DOI: 10.1016/C2017-0-04074-0.

Liang P., Hu Z.-Z., Liu Y. Y., et al. 2019. Challenges in predicting and simulating summer rainfall in the eastern China. Climate Dynamics, 52: 2217-2233. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4256-6

刘芸芸, 陈丽娟. 2019. 2019年春季我国主要气候异常特征及可能成因分析. 气象, 45(10): 1483-1493. doi: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2019.10.015.

李清泉,封国林,刘芸芸,等. 2019. 全球变化背景下东亚气候年际-年代际变率及其可预报性研究. 科学出版社, 337pp.

2025.7 入选2025年度中国气象局新时代气象高层次科技创新人才计划气象领军人才,授予“首席气象专家”称号。

2021.9 入选2021年度中国气象局新时代气象高层次科技创新人才计划气象优秀人才,授予“青年气象英才”称号。